With all teams having four games left to play there is still everything to play for.
Table: (points and points difference)
Toronto 33 +817
Barrow 31 +331
Whitehaven 29 +233
York 24 +200
Dons 22 +118
Keighley 20 +213
Newcastle 18 +92
Workington 17 +4
Toronto would have to lose two of their last four games to possibly be caught at the top by Barrow. The top team is automatically promoted. Barrow travel to Toronto on the weekend of 3rd September. All four of Toronto's remaining games are at home.
Unless Whitehaven lose all four of their remaining games and we win all our matches, we can't get a home tie in the play-offs. The second and third placed teams are at home to the fourth and fifth placed sides. We can't catch Barrow.
The key battles seem to be for 4th, 5th, and 6th places. The Dons inferior points difference could become a factor. The remaining games:
[uW/E 20th August[/u:
Barrow v York
Whitehaven v Keighley
Workington v Dons
Toronto v Newcastle
Apart from a Dons win, we could do with Barrow beating York and Whitehaven beating Keighley.
[uW/E 3rd September[/u:
Barrow v Workington
Newcastle v Keighley
York v Dons
Toronto v Whitehaven
If we beat York we'd be level on points with them (based on today's table) but they'd still be ahead on points difference. We could do with Newcastle beating Keighley.
[uW/E 10th September[/u:
Dons v Newcastle
Keighley v Workington
Whitehaven v York
Toronto v Barrow
The Dons and Keighley will probably both be favourites to win their games. York have a tougher match. A defeat for them could mean we could over-take them for 4th.
[uW/E 17th September[/u:
Toronto v Dons
Barrow v Keighley
Workington v Whitehaven
York v Newcastle
It's a hard game for the Dons to finish on especially as Toronto may still need to win the game to be crowned champions. Keighley have a hard game at Barrow. York perhaps have a slightly easier challenge.
On balance, I'm slightly more concerned about Keighley catching us rather than whether we can overtake York. A defeat for the Dons at York would almost certainly mean we can't catch them. With their better points difference, it means they'd have to lose all of their other three games and we'd have to win all ours.
A win against York would opens things up nicely but we'd probably still have to win in Toronto to finish fourth.
Keighley are the bigger concern but three of their four remaining games are away from home. They'll fancy their chances of beating Workington in their one remaining home game but trips to Whitehaven, Newcastle, and Barrow will be tough. They need to win one more game than us to overtake us.
Four wins out of four for the Dons mean Keighley can't catch us; three wins out of four means we should be okay; two wins out of four could spell danger but might be okay; one win out of four and I think we'll be in trouble as I fancy Keighley to beat Workington and Newcastle. That would be enough for them to overtake us.
Fascinating stuff!
